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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities exist.