Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.